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Matteo Marchetti Market Strategist
Analysis, Market Analysis | June 29, 2022

US OPENING BELL 29-06-2022

US FUTURES TRADE AROUND PARITY IN A EUROPEAN DEEP RED SESSION AND AHEAD OF CASH OPEN; THE US DOLLAR RISES

US futures are expected to open around parity this Wednesday after a negative European session where the Dax is losing 1.9%, FTSE 100 0.50 and Eurostoxx 1.32%. Investors’ sentiment turned negative again following renewed inflation pressure in Europe and ahead of the central bankers’ speeches later this afternoon.

The US Dollar continues its rise even if it retraces slightly in the early morning after the Eurozone Consumer Confidence data reached -23.6, precisely as expected. In the meantime, Spanish CPI data showed a new peak at 10.2% (YoY) against a forecast of 9.0% (YoY), another indicator that inflation pressures are still far from being under control.

Sweden and Finland are ready to join NATO after Turkey removed its veto (obtaining some concessions). The US Army is prepared to expand its presence in Europe to defend what the alliance called a direct threat to the European peace.


EURUSD, M15

The EURUSD regained some of yesterday’s losses after the very negative drop in which the pair lost around 0.60% and wiped out the gains of the previous 2-day. It found support this morning around the main intraday support area, which is the W-2 VAH, posting a bullish engulfing pattern, and from there, the pair regained the W-1 Value Area. At the moment, it is also trying to retrieve the current weekly Value Area, and if it succeeds, this movement could be considered a positive bias for the rest of the day. However, to continue its pullback, the pair should overcome the most critical intraday resistance area between the current weekly VAL and the W-1 POC. In that case, the most likely scenario is a continuation of the pullback to target higher resistances, meaning the W-1 VAH and eventually the medium-term resistance around the yearly LVN. On the flip side, if the pair fails to break the most important resistance area upward, another drop to the W-2 VAH is expected.

Main intraday support areas where to look for long trades in case of bullish candlestick pattern or short trades in case of bearish candlestick pattern: 1.0509, 1.0492, 1.0453.

Main intraday resistances areas where to look for short trades in case of bearish candlestick pattern or long trades in case of bullish candlestick pattern: 1.0528-1.0538, 1.0562, 1.0586.

S&P500, M30

The S&P index dropped heavily yesterday after Consumer Confidence data reached the lowest level since February 2021, losing 2.01%. As soon as prices reached the highlighted low volume area, they crossed it fast, as expected, and they did not find any proper support falling below the current weekly Value Area. As regards today, the most significant support area is the W-1 VAH, while the most critical resistance area is between the LVN and the current weekly VAL (with another, weaker intraday resistance area around the 3837 mark). If prices will regain the 3837 mark, recovery up to the main intraday resistance is expected; on the other hand, should prices break the main support downward, the most likely scenario is a continuation of recent drops until around the W-1 POC.

Main intraday support areas where to look for long trades in case of bullish candlestick pattern or short trades in case of bearish candlestick pattern: 3805, 3766.

Main intraday resistances areas where to look for short trades in case of bearish candlestick pattern or long trades in case of bullish candlestick pattern: 3837, 3855-3862, 3907.

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