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Matteo Marchetti Market Strategist
Analysis, Market Analysis | July 4, 2022

US OPENING BELL 04-07-2022

EUROPEAN EQUITIES INCREASE GAINS IN THE FIRST PART OF THE SESSION AHEAD OF THE CLOSING TRADING DAY IN THE US; PRESSURE ON PERIPHERAL EU BOND MARKETS

European stocks increased their gains this Monday while the US market will remain closed due to the Independence Day holiday, with Dax ahead by 0.32%, FTSE100 by 1.08% and Eurostoxx by 0.57%.

After the Financial Times revealed that the European Central Bank intended to withdraw a long-standing subsidy for the industry that has allowed banks to boost their profits merely by depositing their surplus liquidity at the central bank, eurozone bonds and bank equities plunged.

Regarding the macroeconomic data, the EU PPI was released at 36.3% (YoY) against the 36.7% forecast, while Germany posted its first trade deficit in 31 years due to a high increase in its import bills.


EURUSD, M15

The EURUSD managed to exit from the morning trading range to the upward and successfully broke the main intraday resistance level around the 1.0454 mark, which could be considered a positive bias for the rest of the day. Currently, the most likely scenario is a continuation of the short-term uptrend to target the W-3 VAH. Still, this scenario is likely to happen only if prices can also break the D-1 POC upward. Should prices post some bearish candlestick pattern around this resistance area, instead, drop until the W-3 VAL is expected.

Main intraday support areas where to look for long trades in case of bullish candlestick pattern or short trades in case of bearish candlestick pattern: 1.0454, 1.0415, 1.0383-1.0376.

Main intraday resistances areas where to look for short trades in case of bearish candlestick pattern or long trades in case of bullish candlestick pattern: 1.0460, 1.0498.

WTI, M15

The WTI is trying to break the trading range between 105.5 and 107.6 upwardly. Currently, it is facing the main intraday resistance area between 107.73 and 108.1, where there are some past daily LVN. If it manages to break it, the most likely scenario is a continuation of the rise to target the W-1 POC. On the other hand, as long as prices remain below that resistance area, a pullback to the W-2 VAH & LVN area is expected, with the possibility of breaking this main intraday support area downwards to target the W-1 VAL.

Main intraday support areas where to look for long trades in case of bullish candlestick pattern or short trades in case of bearish candlestick pattern: 107.01, 105.5, 102.67.

Main intraday resistances areas where to look for short trades in case of bearish candlestick pattern or long trades in case of bullish candlestick pattern: 107.73-108.10, 109.62. 110.37.

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