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Matteo Marchetti Market Strategist
Analysis, Market Analysis | August 10, 2022

US OPENING BELL 10-08-2022

EUROPEAN STOCKS TRADE AROUND PARITY AHEAD OF THE US SESSION OPENING, WHERE THE CPI DATA, WHICH WILL BE PUBLISHED BEFORE OPENING, WILL BE IN THE SPOTLIGHT.

European equities returned to parity ahead of the opening of the US session, which will largely depend on the release of CPI data expected before the open. Expectations are for year-on-year inflation at 8.7 % and monthly inflation at 0.2 %. On the other hand, the monthly Core CPI figure is expected at 0.5%. However, all the data are expected to be down from previous publications, and if so, they could signal the passing of the inflation peak in the States. In any case, it will probably take some surprising downward data for the Fed’s monetary policy to change and surprise investors. Otherwise, if they align with expectations or are higher, the central bank’s monetary stance should remain unchanged or tighten.

Elsewhere, the WTI remains under pressure ahead of the publication of the Crude Oil Inventories. At the same time, gold is stable at around 1807$ per ounce, and the two leading cryptos still fail to overcome long-term resistances.

Regarding the macroeconomic calendar, no notable data will be released today apart from the already mentioned US CPI data and Crude Oil Inventories.


EURUSD, M15

The EURUSD posted this morning a bullish engulfing on the main intraday support around the D-1 HVN (1.0205) and started to rise, targeting the W-1 POC. It also breaks this resistance area upward and is now fighting to overcome the last resistance area (D-1 VAH) before the W-3 VAH. From a technical point of view, the W-1 POC become the most interesting intraday support area, while the most significant resistance area is the D-1 VAH. A stretch to the W-3 VAH is expected if prices remain above the support. On the other hand, if the pair falls below the support, a drop to the W-2 VAH is the most likely scenario. Please note that the setup could change drastically after the publication of the CPI data, where high volatility is expected.

Main intraday support areas where to look for long trades in case of bullish candlestick pattern or short trades in case of bearish candlestick pattern: 1.0234, 1.0214, 1.0205.

Main intraday resistances areas where to look for short trades in case of bearish candlestick pattern or long trades in case of bullish candlestick pattern: 1.0245, 1.0266.

S&P500, M30

The S&P500 failed yesterday to break the most crucial intraday support area between the W-1 POC and the W-1 VAL, posting a double bottom around these two levels, which can be considered a positive bias for today. From a technical point of view, the most significant intraday support area remains between the 4117 and the 4109 marks, while the main intraday resistance is around the D-1 POC. If prices can break the resistance upward, a stretch to the W-1 VAH and toward the yearly LVN is expected. On the other hand, if prices fail to overcome the resistance area, a drop to target the W-1 POC again becomes the most likely scenario. Please note that the setup could change drastically after the publication of the CPI data, where high volatility is expected.

Main intraday support areas where to look for long trades in case of bullish candlestick pattern or short trades in case of bearish candlestick pattern: 4117-4109, 4079.

Main intraday resistances areas where to look for short trades in case of bearish candlestick pattern or long trades in case of bullish candlestick pattern: 4138, 4153, 4169.

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