- April-May 2017 fall vs Oct-Nov 2015 fall.
- Higher low expected on weekly basis.
- Over near term, expected a bullish bias.
Silver price manage to recover nearly 40% of April – May fall, rose two consecutive weeks. During April to May fall (18.60-16.00$) the price down for 16 days out of 17 trading sessions. It reminds me the October 2015 fall, where the price fell for fifteen straight sessions.The magnitude of the April-May fall was slightly higher than Oct 2015.
The price made a bottom ahead of Fed’s rate hike in 2015. This time we have June Fed meeting and I expect the price likely to bottom between 16-15.60$ and change the direction for 17.40 and 17.90 initially. Further strength will be available if the price settles above 50MA on the monthly chart.
Earlier the price rejected thrice at 50MA (monthly) and in the current situation since February the price rejected thrice (Feb, Mar, and April). Over the medium term, the price has a potential resistance between 17.90 and 18.80 (50MA and 100EMA, monthly chart) and potential support finds between 16.00-15.60$. If fails at Dec 2016 low 15.60$, parallel support levels finds between 15.20 and 15.00. In an extreme bearish scenario, fails at 15$ drag the Silver to 13$ but the chances are remote.
Over near term, trading range remains between 17.40 and 16.00. Today (May 22) on early Asia trade, the Silver price suddenly spikes more than a percent, high was 17.14$ later erased the gains mostly. At the time of preparing the article (12:00 PM AEDT), the price is trading with 0.20% gains at 16.85.
Trading support finds at 16.80, 16.40 and 16.00$. The 20DMA finds at 16.65 and higher swing low (four-hour chart) finds at 16.40. In case of a dip towards 20DMA is a buying opportunity with sl 16.40 for 17, 17.30/17.40 initially, later 17.70/17.90 expected. Until the price close above 16$ on weekly basis, we can mark it as higher low expect a strong rebound for 18.80/19$ over the medium term. Alternatively, if the price fails at 16$, focus shifts to 15.60 and 15$.
As shown on the daily chart, the daily RSI and oscillators are bullish favors and the weekly chart (below) spotted with a symmetrical triangle.
It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.
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