NZD was the winner on Thursday, it has arrived 23.6%. 
The kiwi dollar rose 0.70%, against the USD on Thursday session. Intraday highest gains were recorded against EUR 1.0%, against CAD and CHF 0.80% and 0.50% against JPY. Gains were limited to 0.30% against GBP and AUD.

Event risk:

Inflation data from US (Friday) and NZ (Oct 17) are the key risk events are highlighting.

Fri, Oct 13


Barclays: We forecast headline CPI at 0.6% m/m and 2.3% y/y in September. For core CPI, we forecast readings of 0.2% m/m and 1.8% y/y.

Tue, Oct 17
According to Phil Borkin at ANZ, “We expect headline inflation to rise 0.4% q/q in September quarter (released 17th October), which would see annual inflation lift modestly to 1.8% y/y from Q2’s 1.7% y/y result. It is above the RBNZ’s August MPS forecast of 0.2% q/q (1.6% y/y). That is stronger than RBNZ expectations.”
He also said in a research note, “Core inflation measures are likely to remain in a 1½-2% range”.

Barclays: Our pick for Q3 CPI is stronger than the 0.2%qoq/1.6%yoy forecasts outlined by the RBNZ in the August MPS.

Technical overview:

Before rebound to 0.7145, it was spotted with a triple bottom at 0.7050. The cross facing resistance at the neckline (below chart) on the four-hour chart.

On the daily chart, 200MAs seems between 0.7155 and 0.7175 above these earlier swing low seems at 0.7200.
Supports moved to 0.7075, 0.7050 and 0.7020/0.7000. The daily RSI and oscillator appear bullish.

Fib reactions: (0.7434-0.7055 correction)
23.6% @0.7150, 38.2%@0.7200 and 50.0%@0.7250

View: The daily ABC correction aiming at 0.7010 and on the H4 chart, it is 0.6970.

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