Data review: 

  • New Zealand headline business confidence showed a net 38% vs 39% in November. Businesses are pessimistic about the year ahead, an ANZ Bank survey showed on Dec 19 Tuesday. Headline business confidence remains negative across all the five sub-sectors, ANZ research note reported.
  • New Zealand’s seasonally adjusted current account deficit for the September 2017 quarter narrowed to $1.3 billion, Stats NZ said today.

Data preview:

  • GDP (Thu)

NZ economy was up 0.8 percent in the June 2017 quarter. In Q3 we expect the economy will grow 0.6%. A bullish NZD reaction could expect if the GDP grows above 0.7%.

FX overview:

The kiwi bird before retraced to 0.6965 it was rejected at 100DEMA multiple times coincides with a 38.2 % fib reaction (0.7435-0.6780 fall). Recent price action manages to hold the earlier breakout level.

Support 0.6960, 0.6900 and 0.6815

Resistance 0.7035/0.7055, 0.7100 and 0.7200

Bottom range: 0.6815-0.6780

As we enter to last phase of 2017, we believe the cross likely to face potential resistance at 0.7070 it’s 20WMA. The daily RSI crawls nearly overbought and the oscillator turned bearish. AT higher time frames (weekly) the oscillator turns bullish. Buying the dip is our theme.


Readers can remind we initiated our first buying trade (after election hangover) at 0.6845 minutes before NZ jobs data in October.

Ref: NZDUSD: Buying trade ahead of Jobs data

Trade: We remain a buyer into 2018 for 0.7100/0.7130 and 0.7200.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

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