What’s on today?
- BOJ and NFP
BOJ: We forecast that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) board is going to keep all its policy settings on hold. We particularly focus on the press conference of governor Kuroda, as the JPY strengthened by 4.50% against the USD. This is in opposite to what happened so far as USDJPY is trading low, post-US elections. Therefore, we maintain our bullish stance on EURJPY and CADJPY in the near-term.
NFP: In terms of US data, we believe nonfarm payrolls to rise by 200k and the average hourly earnings to be rise by 0.3%.
USDJPY: Since 21st of February, the cross remained in a narrow range of 105.20-107.90. We forecast a break below 105.00, regardless of the RSI levels and further weakness towards 104.50 and 103.50 could also be possible. It might reach a target low of at 103.50 (118.65-107.30-114.75) based on the corrective A-B-C pattern.
Trading with an intraday perspective, 106.75 is the key resistance to watch. Today’s range is 108.00-105.00. A daily close above 106.80 could boost the corrective rally for 108.00/108.20, an extreme case 109.00 even possible. The corrective rally will offer another chance to sell between 108.00-109.00.
It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.
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