Our main focus over the week ahead will be the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting minutes, US FOMC minutes and BOJ Policy rate,

  • Minutes of September 2017 Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board, 19 September 2017, 11.30 am AEST.
  • FOMC meeting and quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, September 21.
  • Bank of Japan Statement on Monetary Policy, September 21.

Over weekend news from Japan gain some traction. Japanese Prime Minister Abe mulling snap election as early as October.

The Nikkei reported, “Abe is apparently weighing a dissolution of the lower house as early as the end of this month, with a general election to follow in October”.

North Korea fired another missile launch on last Friday. JPY crosses refresh buying on a dip and witness multiple bullish patterns.  The following are the JPY/ Asia FX snapshots.

USDJPY

  • Last week price action was the strongest in 2017.
  • Facing resistance at 50MA (monthly).
  • Rebound nearly 38.0% (118.65-107.30 fall).

Before rebounds to 111.30 last week, USDJPY has taken all the stops placed below 108.00, low made at 107.30 on Sep 08. Our buying stopped at 107.50.

As shown on the below chart USDJPY trading on a verge of a trendline (blue) and a neckline breakout (black)

On the four-hour chart, the price pattern spotted with an inverse H&S pattern. A neckline breakout needed to aim at 111.80 and 113.25.

Support zone finds between 109.85 and 109.50 its 20DMA.

A move below 109.50 needed to retest 109, 108.60 and 108.00 levels initially and 107-106.50 expected later. Alternatively, resistance seems at 111.35 its 50MA (monthly) above this resistance zone (earlier support zone) seems between 111.60-111.70 and 112.15 exists.

A weekly close above 111.35 could push the trading range to 111.70/112.15 initially and later 114.30/115.

Weekly Range: 114-106.50

AUDJPY: Breakout looms

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

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