AUDSUD extends the falling pattern for the third straight week and twice re-tested the 50WMA. The cross has been moving South for seven weeks out of eight.

Data review:

  • The balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,745m in September 2017, an increase of $872m on the surplus in August 2017.
  • Total dwellings approved rose 1.5% in September and has risen for two months.

Data preview:

Tue, Nov 07

RBA rate statement

On Tuesday we believe the RBA expected to leave the interest rates unchanged at 1.50% again. We also expect the tone will be neutral and our focus will be on the inflation language.

In our last week’s forecast, we forecast “Final retracement looms”. We still believe AUD will underperformance against G10 currencies.

TECHNICAL VIEW

The Aussie dollar again surrenders to bears last week, even better trade surplus failed to support the Aussie bulls. AUDSUD extends the falling pattern for the third straight week and twice re-tested the 50WMA.

The daily oscillator turns bullish and the RSI making a higher low. Initial supports finds at 0.7620 below this 0.7590 its 20MA (month) exists. Fails to hold the initial support focus shifts to the parallel support finds at 0.7530 coincides with 100MA (weekly). The daily ABC pattern aiming at 0.7510 coincides with the earlier breakout level in mid- May.

By considering the daily RSI at oversold levels we forecast a corrective pullback to 0.77/0.7730, 0.7780 and 0.7830. Between 0.7750 and 0.7830 we will face selling pressure again for the final leg down to 0.7550/0.7515.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

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