The weak US retail sales data and rate hike uncertainty drag the dollar index refresh seven weeks the lowest position, the latest fell 0.8 percent to 94.034.
The pair erased earlier two days gains again re-test the 100dsma at yesterday’s session and early Asia’s session as well.
US September retail sales are 0.1%, expected 0.2%, the previous value of 0.2% revised to 0.0%.US September PPI MoM -0.5%, down to January largest; expect -0.2%, previous value of 0.0%.
Barclay’s economist Jesse Hurwitz: down in the weak retail sales data in the US third-quarter GDP is expected to increase 0.2 percentage points to 1.0%, but after business inventories data release is expected to grow by 1.2% recovery.
BNP Paribas said the US retail sales data suggest that the third quarter GDP growth of around 2.3%.
After less than expected US retail sales data, Goldman Sachs, the US third quarter GDP growth forecast from 1.5% to 1.2%.
Unemployment claims: Economists estimate initial claims climbed to 269,000 from 263,000 a week ago.
HSBC: “Last week’s initial jobless claims reading fell to 263,000 from 276,000 the previous week. The 4-week average fell to 267,500, close to its lowest level in several decades. The slow pace of layoffs suggests that business remains relatively confident about the economic outlook.”
CPI: Economists estimate that CPI fell negative 0.2% month-over-month. Excluding food and energy, core CPI is estimated to have climbed by 0.1%.
Philly Fed manufacturing index: Economists estimate this regional activity index improved to -1.8 in October from -6.0 in September.
Intraday trading resistance seems at 1.2900
Support finds at 1.2900, 1.2840 and 1.2800
Bulls last hope remains at 1.2860. In the four-hour chart and daily charts, we can observe momentum indicators are developing positive divergence. It’s a million dollar question, whether the pair responds to that or not.
On the downside, a daily close below 1.2830 the bears might extend the journey towards 1.2630 and 1.2580.
A weekly close below 1.2900 the bears might target at 50wsma.
In the absence of Canadian data during this week, the direction of the pair depends on the greenback.