The cross manages to extend the gains at yesterday’s session as well but remains below 50dsma as trader’s eye 3Q GDP estimated of US.
SMH reported, “I suspect governor Stevens will be quietly pleased to see the fall in the Aussie after the FOMC, given how many times he must have been warned that the hike was factored into the Aussie already,” said Sean Callow, foreign exchange strategist at Westpac Banking “It seems the period of jawboning is behind us. He seems willing to trust the markets to resume selling Aussie if commodities remain weak.”
The cross lost 1400 pips from January high’s comes to 17%, from 2011 peaks the cross lost almost 40%. The cross formed a strong resistance zone between 0.7385 and 0.7420 whereas parallel trigger available above 0.7440 levels.
The Australian dollar is likely to hit a cyclical low of 64 cents in the September quarter of 2016, with recent strength – seemingly running against fundamentals – unlikely to be sustained in the months ahead-Daniel Breen, currency strategist of the ANZ, who suggests the terminal level for the Aussie is likely to be closer to 60 cents rather than 70 cents.
Trader’s eye today’s GDP estimate.
GDP annualized 3Q estimate- Economist likely to revise the 3Q to 1.9% from November’s estimate of 2.1%.
Credit Suisse: “Since Q3 GDP’s first revision, we have seen further downward revisions to manufacturing and wholesale inventories. The latest data on Q3 durable goods shipments also are looking weaker. And newly-released “hard data” on service spending suggest a downward revision to personal consumption on health care last quarter.”
Flip side, Kathy Lien, of BK Asset Management notes “US dollar strength can be a powerful driver of currency flows but at the end of the day Australia and New Zealand still offer a higher yield than the U.S.” “For the next 2 months the focus should shift away from a Fed hike and that should help AUD and NZD recover.”
Trading support finds at 0.7150, 0.7110 and 0.7070
Resistance seems at 0.7220, 0.7240 and 0.7285
We remain to our favorable strategy “buying until the cross holds 0.7070 levels”.
Selling opens below 0.7150 few pips lower targets at 0.7120, 0.7100. Panic will be triggered below 0.7070 levels.