ECB decided that the interest rate will remain unchanged at 0.00%. The Governing Council continues to expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases.

The Governing Council confirms that the monthly asset purchases of €80 billion are intended to run until the end of March 2017, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until it sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim.

  • The ECB expects the euro zone unemployment rate in 2016 of 10.1%, 10.2% is expected in June.
  • It expected 9.9% unemployment rate in the euro area in 2017, and in June is expected to flat.
  • 2018 euro zone unemployment rate of 9.6%, expected 9.5 percent in June.
  • The European Central Bank is expected 2018 core inflation rate of 1.5%.
  • The European Central Bank is expected 2016 average oil price of $ 42.8 / barrel in 2017 $ 47.4 / barrel, in 2018 $ 50.6 / barrel. 2016, 2017, 2018 euro / dollar exchange rate 1.11.

In response to the ECB, German bond prices ended a three-session winning streak momentum, the German 10-year yield rose 4 basis points to -0.07% from the overnight record -0.127% of the lowest level since July 12; Spanish 10-year bond yields increased 6 basis points to 0.99% in intraday trading fell to a record low 0.90%.

ING analyst Petr Krpata said the euro against the US dollar terms in 2017 target 1.20, because the European Central Bank’s euro weakness “ammunition” is slowly , but it is difficult to avoid depletion; Draghi’s dovish stance at a news conference weaken this support ING side of things; Drudge functional transmission channel, etc. is more optimistic, and hinted that the ECB did not discuss the extension of QE.

September 2016 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area revealed “The recovery in euro area activity is expected to continue. Euro area GDP in 2015 was revised notably upwards due to a large upward revision in Irish GDP”

In annual terms, real GDP is expected to grow by 1.7% in 2016 and by 1.6% in 2017 and 2018.

Technical assumptions about interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices

GDP and HICP inflation forecasts by other institutions :
A number of forecasts for the euro area are available from both international organisations and private sector institutions.


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