• Central bank meetings for RBA and BOC
• PMI surveys for UK, EA, and the US
• 2Q GDP data for EZ and Australia
• US non-farm payrolls
The weak head, August PMI data, and US non-farm payrolls are the highlights. It seems economic data should drive the FX technical landscape in the G10 block.
Turning to the central bank meetings, we expect the RBA and BOC to leave the interest rates unchanged. We also hope the AUD and CAD titled to the downside risk ahead of the monetary policy and economic data risk.
Macroeconomic event highlights are 2Q GDP for EZ and Australia. Besides, August PMI surveys will gauge the trade war damage. Finally, the week is going to end with the US non-farm payrolls. We expect the data from the US continue to show a healthy labor market. We also expect unemployment to remain steady at 2.8% YoY basis, the unemployment rate likely to decline to 3.9% and the payroll gain above 200k. We are more focusing on wage growth.
Payroll numbers increased at the slowest pace since June 2017, IHS Markit reported.
This morning Australia August retail sales and China August Manufacturing PMI data hit the wires. Turning to Europe today, August PMI data is the catalyst for EURUSD. Elsewhere, the Public holiday in the US makes the silent start to a heavy duty week.
- Australian retail turnover was relatively unchanged (0.0 percent) in July 2018, seasonally adjusted, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures.
- China’s August manufacturing PMI printed at 50.6; a 14-month low is expected to be 50.7 vs. 50.8.
Caution is creeping into the market as market participants are focusing on a how the new round of US tariffs on $200billion worth of Chinese goods could change the Yuan and Aussie dollar landscape.
Chart of the week: AUDUSD
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