The dollar index fell on Friday and but gained 0.90% during the week. The kiwi dollar bucks the trend on Friday with 0.7% on Friday and gained 0.15% last week among G10 currencies. Besides GBP lost 1.70% and the EUR lost 1.2% followed by CAD 0.95% and JPY and CHF by 0.90% each.

On March 08, the U.S dollar across the board on mixed February non-farm payroll. Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in February +20,000, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.2% to 3.8%, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported whereas the average hourly earnings have increased to 3.4%.

On the back of the mixed data, USD down across the board, flip side Silver rose nearly 2.00% and Gold by 1.30%. The Dow Jones futures were down by a percent and later rebound strongly by the end of the day.

Overall the dollar index (KTM: DXY) suggested bullish bias but failed to breach mid-Dec 2018 high. The index requires a strong foot above 98.00 to extend is a new move towards the significant number 100.00 and 100.60. Whereas the flip side, support exists at 96.90 then 96.30.

 

Turning to precious metals, Gold rallied to 1300.75$ nearly completed my target. Now support exists at 1290.00$ and 1280.00$. The RSI is slowly picking up, and the oscillator has been turned to bullish. Based on these facts, we could expect recovery towards the resistance 1303.00$ ahead of 1312-1314$ its 20MA and 50.0% fib reaction. But selling on rising favors the trend.

The broader G10 currencies are closed to their lower ranges and continue to remain in ranges for the week (March 11- 15) expect GBP. GBPUSD weekly pivotal finds at 1.2880 below here focus shifts to 1.2770 its 61.8% fib reaction then 1.2660.

This morning in Asia, dollar edges up higher marginally after Friday’s fall.

Week ahead:
It is a crucial week ahead for Brexit, the House of Commons will vote on Theresa’s May Brexit deal.
“Reaching a deal cannot be ruled out, but an extension of the 29 March deadline looks more likely.” Nordea Markets reported.
Danske Bank said “If the government loses the vote, there will be a vote on Wednesday on whether to rule out leaving the EU without a deal. If the Commons vote to take no-deal off the table, there will be a third vote on Thursday on whether to ask the EU for an extension of Article 50. We judge that there is a 15% probability that May’s deal will pass on Tuesday”.

On top of the Brexit headlines, UK January GDP will be in focus. Turning to EZ, we will get February CPI on Friday.

“We expect the CPI report to confirm that inflation rose slightly to 1.5% y/y at the middle of the second quarter from 1.4% in January.” Moody’s Analytics reported.
Elsewhere in the US, we will get Retail sales, IP and CPI.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

What is your Technical View?

Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts.