Medium term: Since 21st of February, the price action remained in a narrow range of 105.20-107.90. We forecast a break below 105.00, regardless of the RSI levels and further weakness towards 104.50 and 103.50 could also be possible. It might reach a target low of at 103.50 (118.65-107.30-114.75) based on the corrective A-B-C pattern.
As shown in the below chart, the oscillator (RVI) is remaining positive against the price correction. Based on this study, we expect the price will hold 105.20-105.00 support level for the next couple of days. For the week ahead, investors are waiting for U.S Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates, which might affect the dollar and helps to define the USDJPY trend. We expect the Fed to hike 25bps in its next week’s meeting. In case of a hawkish projection, we forecast that the USDJPY will be the clear outperformer.
See also: The Risen Risk Appetite
Intraday: Trading with an intraday perspective, 106.60 it’s 20MA is the key resistance to watch. Today’s range is 106.60-105.00. A daily close above 106.60 could boost the corrective rally for 107.30 and 108.00/108.20.
Support: 105.80 and 105.50
View: Buy with sl below 105.00 targets 106.60 and 107.30.
It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.
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