By the end of trading session, last night the dollar index (KTM: USDX) closed -0.20%. The lack of bulls strength throughout the session is best summed up by the result of the double top pattern behavior. In bond market 10y Treasury yield settled at 2.61%.
Turning to commodities Platinum closed with a percent gain, seems young bullish legs are catching up again.
In terms of the macro data from yesterday, the UK jobs data looks strong. In the three months to January, the unemployment rate dropped to 3.9% its lower since November 1974 to January 1975, and average weekly earnings increased by 3.4%.
Commenting on the data ING forecast “August BoE hike remains on the table.” Chief International Economist at ING said “Taking it all together it suggests the UK economy is in better shape than many had been believing. If the UK gets a long term extension (nine to 12 months) to Article 50 in the coming days/weeks, this can perhaps give businesses and households a little more breathing room to relax and spend or invest. As such, the prospect of a BoE rate hike later this year remains pretty strong.”
Other macro data ZEW Indicator recorded a strong increase of 9.8 points in March 2019, ZEW reported. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany recorded a strong increase of 9.8 points in March 2019, with the corresponding indicator climbing to a level of minus 3.6 points.
Commenting on the data ZEW president Profession, Achim said “The possible delay in the Brexit process, as well as the renewed hope for a deal on the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, seem to have given rise to more optimism among financial market experts. Progress made in the negotiations between China and the US to end the trade war between the two nations may also have contributed.”
Besides, the economic development of the EZ has also improved considerably, with the corresponding indicator climbing 14.1 points to a current level of minus 2.5 points.
Moving away from the data, there were also Brexit headlines to learn yesterday. According to Bloomberg, the EU regards mid-April as the deadline for the UK to make a decision on the postponement of Brexit. The EU will not allow the Brexit negotiations to be resumed by extending the Brexit time.
Danske Bank said, “As of today, it seems unlikely that there will be a third vote in the House of Commons on May’s Brexit deal before the EU summit starting on Thursday, 21 March.”. In its, Investment Research note the bank also said “We now believe that a long Brexit extension is more likely than a short one (60% and 30%, respectively). Higher chance of no deal by accident if EU leaders do not grant the extension (10% probability of this not happening).”.
In terms of other events from yesterday, RBA minutes highlighted that labor market conditions had continued to improve. The minutes also underlined “Leading indicators continued to suggest that employment growth was likely to remain above average, although some indicators had turned down a little recently.”
Westpac said “Expected timetable of rate cuts in August and November.” Bill Evans at Westpac said in a note “Westpac’s timetable for policy action remains a 25bps cut in August to be followed by a second 25bps cut in November. These dates will give the RBA appropriate scope to explain their decisions in the context of weaker growth, employment and inflation forecasts in an orderly fashion, rather than be seen to overreact to any particular data report.”.
This morning in Asia, Stats NZ reported the December 2018 quarter current account summary. New Zealand’s Current account deficit unchanged at $2.5 billion, largely unchanged from the September quarter 2018’s deficit.
Looking at the day ahead, it’s a reasonably busy day for data highlights by UK CPI, FOMC meeting and NZ GDP data.
Chart of the day: USDJPY
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