The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Employment Situation for January, is scheduled to be released today, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT). In December 2018 total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 312k compared with an average monthly gain of 254k over the prior 3months.
The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Besides, the labor force participation rate, at 63.1 percent in December, changed little.
On Thursday, the ADP National Employment report showed US Private sector employment increased by 213,000 jobs from December 2018 to January 2019. We understand this is well below the November report but beat the market expectations of 180k. The ADP report is the hint to the Friday’s NFP data, seems US economy continues to add aggressively to their payrolls, but the government shutdown could deliver moderate gains.
“The labor market has continued its pattern of strong growth with little sign of a slowdown in sight,“ said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.
What does the January 2019 Non-farm payrolls look like?
After a strong December 2018 report, we expect the data from the US continue to show a healthy labor market with little sign of a slowdown. We also expect the unemployment rate likely to remain at 3.9% and the headline payroll gain around 150k. We are more focusing on wage growth. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased to 3.2, and in January 2019 we expect 0.3%.
The January FOMC statement said that “labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low.”
The Federal Reserve January Beige Book noted that “Wages grew throughout the country, with the majority of Districts reporting moderate gains.”.
According to Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market weathered the government shutdown well. Despite the severe disruptions, businesses continued to add aggressively to their payrolls. As long as businesses hire strongly the economic expansion will continue on.”
Ahead of the US NFP and the latest US-China trade war talks leaving USDJPY in a sandwiched position.
USDJPY technical story is developing………..
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