Image source: johnlechnerart

What’s on today?

  • RBA Financial Stability Review, 11.30 am AEST (AUD)
  • China Trade Balance (CNH & AUD)
  • German Final CPI m/m (EUR)
  • EA Trade Balance (EUR)
  • JOLTS Job openings (USD)

In the Asian session, we are particularly focusing on the RBA Financial Stability Review and China Trade Balance.

According to Barclays, “Reflecting strong new export orders, we forecast double-digit export growth in March despite some moderation. Import growth is likely to rebound, as suggested by increase in the PMI import index”.

FX OUTLOOK

AUDUSD

The cross has been consolidating in a tight range between 0.7785-0.7640 for four weeks. The daily studies are encouraging a short-term squeeze and a move above the descending wedge pattern could strengthen further. In this case 0.7815-0.7830 could expect.

It has a potential support zone at 0.7630-0.7600 a move below this could open to 0.7550 and 0.7500.

 

AUDNZD

The cross fell to the lowest level since July 2017 and tested the weekly pivotal. The price action has been sitting above big support 1.0480 and the three-year ascending trendline. The daily oscillator has been turning into a bullish mode and the RSI study is nearly oversold at 33.00.

Intraday support: 1.0490< 1.0430

Over the medium term, 1.0325-1.0370 should hold to maintain the upside potential.

View: Scope to resume the short-term rebound to 1.0550 and 1.0600 initially.

EURAUD

EURAUD faced renewed selling pressure with a lower low and a lower high pattern (below chart). At the end of the last month, the cross was rejected at a parallel resistance seems to be at 1.6225. The daily studies are remaining bearish with an immediate support is found at 1.5860 below this 1.5830 its 50MA exists. Alternatively, resistances exist at 1.5960 and 1.6040 levels. There are three separate levels that are converged between 1.5830-1.5770 (below daily chart), breaking lower could retrace further to 1.5730 and 1.5650.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

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