• Oil traders eyed fresh insights from OPEC and IEA reports
  • Supply crunch back on the table
  • The downside prevails as long as 79.50$-80.50$ is resistance zone

Last week’s drop in Oil prices was led by mixed EIA report and more supply from Saudi to America. According to the EIA Thursday, US crude inventories fell 4.3 million barrels on the week ended August 31, reported by S&P Platts.

Saudi oil shipments into the U.S. reached a four-week average of one million barrels a day last week for the first time since late 2017, according to government data, and are up roughly 250,000 barrels a day since late May, Bloomberg reported.

The monthly OPEC report will be released on Wed, 12 Sep and IEA report will be published on Thu, 13Sep respectively. 

We believe this week’s Brent crude oil price action is likely to remain controlled by OPEC and IEA reports. Directionally, we think production wave from Saudi Arabia is setting the stage for bears.

Technical signals are mixed:

Since the end of June, Brent oil has placed at the top at 79.50$ levels. Just last week, the price made a high at 79.46$ and retraced to 75.50$ levels, its earlier breakout level. It seems the near-term price action may have contained within the 80.0$-75.50$ range unless a fresh catalyst emerges, most possible downside.

Good support could arise around the 75.50$ ahead of the 75.00$ and 74.00-73.70$. A drag below 75.50$ could attract additional selling interest to 74.00$ and 72.20$ levels.

Resistance seems to be at 77.75$, 78.40$ and 79.00$. The daily studies RSI is stabilizing whereas the oscillator is remaining bearish, throwing a mixed view. A break above 77.75$ level would point a new acceleration of the short-term rally towards 78.40$ and 79.00$.

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