Brent crude oil price halted the rally after rising more than 22.00% so far in the first two weeks of 2019. The Brent oil moved to the resistance level 62.50$ and failed against 50MA and 20MA (Weekly).
However, overnight, oil price fell nearly 2.00% on weak China trade data. Both the import and export data recorded lower than expected as the growth rate was the lowest since 2011.
December imports were -7.6%, forecast 4.5% vs 3%; exports were -4.4%, forecast 2%, vs 5.4%. Exports YoY were 2.48 trillion USD, up 9.9%.
We still expect the supply and easing global growth are continuing to raise the volatility over the near and medium term. Supports located at 58.50, 57.80 and 55.50$, noting that 20MA finds at 56.50$. Resistances seems to be at 60.60$, 61.75$ and 62.50$.
Fundamental side, the U.S. not looking to grant further Iran oil sales waivers. Reuters reported “We are not looking to grant any waivers or exemptions to the import of Iranian crude,” Brian Hook told an industry conference in the United Arab Emirates capital Abu Dhabi.”.
The market is waiting for fresh clues probably US inventory data to provide a further trend. Despite the recent rally, the RSI indicator shows that Brent oil has not entered the overbought category. Moreover, RSI and oscillator show a bullish sign in weekly chart.
Over the near term, we expect a consolidation between 55.50-63.75$.
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