Germany factory orders plunge –7.4% in January seasonally adjusted on the previous month.
In January 2017, domestic orders decreased by 10.5% and foreign orders by 4.9% on the previous month (Dec 2016). New orders from the euro area were down 7.8% on the previous month, new orders from other countries decreased 2.9% compared to December 2016.
Q4 2016 GDP estimate up by 0.4% in the euro area and by 0.5% in the EU.
What’s on today?
Lack of Eur high impact macro data, market participants focus on U.S data.
- ADP Non-farm employment change-forecast 184k vs 246k
ANZ-The February ADP report is expected to show that private sector jobs rose 189k last month, in line with the six month average (184k) but weaker than January’s 246k gain. That would be way above the 75k-125k gains that Fed Chair Yellen referred to in her latest speech as consistent with the longer run growth in the labour force.
- Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q- forecast 1.5% vs 1.3%
Technical view: On short term basis, the price has potential resistance seems between 1.0630 and 1.0640 levels. EURUSD fails to handle 20&50Dsma seems at1.0590 and 1.0620 respectively.
The price remains in a downtrend, intraday range remains between 1.05-1.0640.
Medium term: The price has a support base finds between 1.0520 and 1.0490 below these 1.0450 exists. Potential support finds at 1.0350/1.0340.
Ahead of ECB meeting (Mar09) 1.0630/1.0640 act as strong resistance zone above this 1.07 exists.
Also read: EUR/USD net longer ahead of ECB
According to Matthew Turner at Macquarie,” The ECB will not change policy or even stance at Thursday’s Governing Council meeting, brushing off an upgrade to its headline inflation forecast and welcome signs of a strengthening economic recovery” said in a Research note (Mar 06).
EURUSD erased the falling trend on Friday’s session, re-tested the trend line on Monday’s session. The bulls need to settle above 1.640 to escape further fall. In this case, 1.0680/1.07 is the initial destination followed by 1.0770 and 1.0800 levels. Potential resistance seems at 1.0830.