US dollar index beaten on Tuesday’s sessions as Trump comments are weighing the market.
Besides, US Employment Cost Index Disappoints in Q4 and Consumer Confidence Retreats in January. The dollar index fully erased December 2016 gains in Jan 2017, down 3.2%. On Tuesday’s session USDX lost nearly 1.5%, Gold rose 1.50%, Eur rose 1% JPY rose 1.20% and GBP, CAD & SGD posted strong gains.
Reuters reported, Trump’s comments are “weighing on a marketplace that was positioned quite long dollars coming into the year,” said Richard Scalone, co-head of foreign exchange at TJM Brokerage in Chicago. “You’re seeing some more entities running for the doors.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had increased in December, retreated in January. The Index now stands at 111.8, down from 113.3 in December.
The quarterly Employment Cost Index came in weaker than expected in the fourth quarter, rising 0.5%
QoQ after a YTD average of 0.6% quarterly growth.
What’s on today?
ADP Non-farm Employment change forecast 165k vs 153k
ISM manufacturing PMI forecast 55 vs 54.7
Federal Funds rate –unchanged
NFP scheduled on Friday.
FOMC Wed,01 Feb- we expect the Fed to leave the target rate unchanged without signalling the timing of the next move.
UBS Research reported, We don’t expect the Fed to hike in this meeting. Nevertheless the market is likely to closely watch the details in the statement after Yellen reiterated her expectations for three hikes this year in a recent speech, on the back of little slack in the labor market and inflation moving more convincingly toward target.
Nonfarm Payrolls- Fri, 2 Dec
- UniCredit fx Research reported -US nonfarm payrolls likely rose a solid 190,000 in January. US nonfarm payrolls likely rose another solid 190,000 in January, faster than the 156,000 seen in December and a bit higher than the monthly average of 180,000 for 2016 as a whole.
The jobless rate probably eased back to 4.6%, thus continuing its gradual downward trend. Average hourly earnings were probably up 0.3% during the month. Due to a negative basis effect, the yoy rate would fall back to 2.7% from 2.9%.
- UBS-Consensus is for another decent employment print in January, with non-farm payrolls at +168k (vs. 156k earlier) and private at +160k (vs. 144k prior), while the unemployment rate expected to remain steady at 4.7%.
Support 99.40, 99 and 98.40/98.30
Resistance 99.80/100, 101 and 101.75
Potential support finds at 99.40 and 99 below these 98.40, 97.60 and 97.20 exists.
USDJPY- trading at six-week low, spotted with a double top
Support: 112, 111.30/110.90 and 110.30/110
Resistance: 113.25, 114 and 114.50
Earlier double top seems between 115.40 and 115.60
USDCHF-manages to hold the 50Wsma
Support: 0.9850, 0.9775 and 0.97
Resistance: 0.9930, 1.0020 and 1.0060
Supply zone remains between 1.0020 and 1.0060
USDCAD- trading below all the daily MA’s. H&S pattern visible on the h4 chart.
Support: 1.2960, 1.2890 and 1.2820/1.28
Resistance: 1.3130, 1.3190 and 1.33