State Securities: Headline inflation rose ring, difficult to see short-term monetary easing. Although the CPI increase was weaker than last month, and record lows for the year, but the chain than-expected gains. Recovery speed too fast too PPI market expectations. The level of inflation for the central bank to consider a comprehensive data after the CPI and PPI, and focus on the ring data is also large. Thus, in the case of headline inflation rose, and by the sound turned loose monetary policy, short-term or difficult to see.
Bureau of Statistics: Consumer prices rose year on year rise slightly down
First, the impact of climate on the heavy rainfall in some areas the price of fresh vegetables greater. Second, the factors leading to the summer seasonal price increases for some services. Third, some fresh food prices fall.
Bank Lian Ping: PPI is expected at the end of year on year growth rose gradually to about 0%. Bank chief economist Lian Ping expressed, ① July mainly produces overall increase in market price, ferrous metals, nonferrous metals, chemical products, coal prices rise potential obviously led PPI year decline narrowed further. ② due to industrial product prices gradually decline over the same period last year, the second half-year PPI monthly base narrowed, help to improve PPI gains. PPI is expected at the end of year on year growth rose gradually to about 0%, an average annual decline of -2.4%, a significant recovery from last year.
Merchants Bank Asset Management, said Liu Dongliang analysis, expected in August CPI high probability will be further reduced to 1.6-1.7% in the third quarter of the year inflation low is clear, taking into account the second half of the fiscal policy efforts would be limited, economic growth momentum will continue to weaken, which will bring a gradual easing of monetary policy window opens, three quarters of a probability of occurrence of the RRR is on the rise.
Fortune Trust: China PPI data reduced the chances of the central bank easing bond.
① Good industrial demand to pick up a large extent that the economy is stabilizing, which should contain the central bank will further relax the policy is expected;
② Absence will hinder monetary stimulus policies capital flows to riskier stock market, financial products, like bonds safer assets should attract capital inflows.
Also read:China July CPI summary