The Australian dollar fell to near 1% after soft retail sales data hits the wires. Ahead of RBA event, the price manages to hold the Friday’s low post NFP low.

Economists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates on hold today, but some are still expecting a rate cut on federal budget day in May if rates stay on hold in the United States.

A Fairfax Media survey of 12 senior bank and market economists found they were unanimous that the central bank will keep the official cash rate at a record low 2 per cent at its policy decision this week SMH reported.

Nomura rate strategist Andrew Ticehurst says a May cut is also likely because the labour force data had been “overstated” and had weakened in the first months of the year, weakness in the economies of its trading partners China, Japan and Korea, and a low quarterly inflation reading.

“In terms of the May call, I would say it’s becoming very close, and it would likely take a very low CPI [consumer price index] release on April 27 to get the Reserve Bank across the line as soon as May,” he

said.

Trading support finds at 0.7590, 0.7550 and 0.7500

Resistance seems at 0.7635, 0.7680 and 0.7740

On the hourly chart, 200sma finds at 0.7590 and 20Dsma finds at 0.7570 levels. The price has been taking support finds at 20Dsma. Until the price close above that, retracement towards 0.7650 and 0.7680 levels.

Flip side, 0.7500, 0.7470 and 0.7450 is an open task.

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