The week ahead

  • NAB business survey for January is due Tuesday
  • Westpac consumer sentiment index will be released on Wednesday
  • Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations and January jobs data due on Thursday.

According to Deutsche Bank, we look for a 10k gain in employment and for the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.8%.

December jobs data review: The seasonally adjusted number of persons employed increased by 13,500 in December 2016. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 5.8 per cent, and the seasonally adjusted labour force participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 64.7%.

Speeches: There are two speeches schedules week ahead.

  • Speech and panel participation by Alexandra Heath, Head of Economic Analysis Department, at the Australian Business Economists (ABE) Forecasting Conference, Sydney 15 February 2017, 7.50 am AEDT
  • Panel participation by Luci Ellis, Assistant Governor (Economic), at the 2017 Australasian Housing Researchers Conference, Melbourne 16 February 2017, 9.00 am AEDT

 China data:

China Jan CPI and PPI scheduled on Tuesday, 14 Feb.

According to HSBC, We estimate CPI to have risen 2.3% y-o-y in January. Food price inflation likely increased ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday, which fell earlier in 2017 than in 2016.

PPI likely rose at a faster pace of 6.5% y-o-y on the back of recovering oil prices and upward adjustment to oil prices by the NDRC.

What’s on today?

There is no major domestic data released today. Market participants focus to Chair Yellen’s talk tomorrow.

On Monday’s Asia trade A$ trading at 0.7667 down marginally 0.20% at the time (12.00PM AEDT)  of preparing this article.

A$ has been trading in a tight range between 0.76-0.77 consolidating above 100Wema.

Support: 0.7600/0.7580, 0.7510/0.7500 and 0.7450

Resistance: 0.77,0.7780/0.78 and 0.780

The 20Dsma finds at 0.76 below this, 0.7525 and 0.7500 are the potential support zone.

Earlier double tops seem between 0.7770 and 0.7835 above these 200Msma seems at 0.7930.

Also read: AUDJPY– RSI indicating a negative divergence, weekly RVI developing a negative formation