The cross rose more than 5% settles far above 20Wsma for the first time since April 2016. For two straight weeks the cross generated decent gains, earlier April 2014 the cross raised three consecutive weeks rose more than 12% (1.10-1.1387).
AUDNZD made high at 1.0920 (Mar080 facing resistance at 50Wsma 1.0950 above this 1.10 exists 200Wema. Further strength available to bulls if settles above 1.10 might extend the rally to the descending trendline above this 1.1265 April 2016 exists.
Alternatively, support finds at, 1.0850, 1.0720/1.07 and1.0560
What’s on the week?
AUD-Local February jobs data (Mar 16, 11.30AEDT)
Mar 14, Tuesday 13.00PM AEDT
- China January fixed investments (y/y) basis forecast 8.2% vs 8.1%
- China January Industrial Production (y/y) basis forecast 6.2% vs 6.0%
- China January Retail sales (y/y) basis forecast 10.5% vs 10.9%
Credit Suisse-February industrial production is expected at 6.6%y/y (versus 6.0% in January). Retail sales should remain at 10.4%y/y.
Key risk event is February Aussie jobs data. Market expectations are 16.5K rise in payrolls and Unemployment rate remains at 5.7% .
NZD- Current account forecast -2.43B vs -4.89B (Mar 15)
ANZ- We expect a small improvement in the seasonally adjusted current account deficit, which should see the annual deficit narrow to 2.8% of GDP.
GDP q/q basis forecast 0.7% vs 1.1%
ANZ Research (Mar 13)- We believe production GDP will expand by 0.7% q/q, with annual growth at 3.2% y/y, although risks are arguably skewed to the downside.
ANZ Research reported (Mar 13) ,NZD still has shiny credentials but they are a little less glossy. ‘Sell the rally’ replaces ‘buy the dip’. The research report also said, We’re still picking a May 2018 start to OCR hikes.
BNZ-Q4 GDP likely to print soft, we forecast just 0.4% (RBNZ at 1.0%)
Also read: AUDUSD remains in sideways