- Private sector employment increased by 298,000 jobs from January to February
- Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 1.3-percent annual rate during the Q4 2016
What’s on today?
Unemployment claims- forecast 239k vs 223k
Non-farm employment date scheduled on Friday (Mar10).
Goldman Sachs: raised the United States in February non-farm employment is expected to increase by 215,000, “small non-agricultural” ADP employment report was released before the expected increase of 19 million.
NFP Preview according to BMO Markets, “We look for nonfarm payrolls to expand by 200k in February. Although slightly below January’s 227k print, this is still comfortably above recent average gains (3- and 6-months at 183k, 12-months at 195k). This payrolls rise should translate into a one-tenth reduction in the jobless rate to 4.7%. There’s a chance this could remain at 4.8% if the participation rate drifts up a tenth to match its near 3-year high of 63.0%, which we suspect the FOMC is okay with. Finally, wage inflation should return to at least 2.7% y/y in February, from 2.5% in January”
According to Chris Weston at SMH, “Economists are now expecting 190,000 jobs to be created in February, with the unemployment rate at 4.7 per cent and hourly wage growth of 2.8 per cent”.
Morgan Stanley: raised the United States in February non-farm employment is expected to increase by 250,000, “small non-agricultural” ADP employment report was expected to increase before the release of 200,000.
ANZ- The strong ADP number bodes well for Friday’s nonfarm payrolls as since the methodology was tweaked late last year, the difference between the two measures has averaged only about 15k, compared to 45k in the three years prior
US dollar index-The dollar index rejected (Mar02) at 66% fib (Jan-Feb fall), remains in a higher low pattern (H4). Potential resistance seems between 102 and 102.25 above this 102.80 and 103 exists. Alternatively, support finds between 101.50 and 101.10/101 below this 100.70 and 100.30 exists.
USDCAD-Sell-off in oil price well supported the USDCAD price along with dollar support. The price made high at 1.35 (Mar 08). Resistance seems between 1.3536 (Nov 28high ), 1.3565 (Nov 18 high) and 1.3600 (Dec 28 high). RSI remains in an overbought zone, correction might drag to 1.3370 and1.3300 initially.
USDJPY- Finally USDJPY close above 50Dsma after Jan 20. The price has potential resistance seems between 114.75 and 115/115.10 above this 115.40 and 115.60 exists. Alternatively, support finds at 114.00, 113.60 and 113.00.
USDZAR- Spotted with an inverse H&S pattern, neckline breakout not yet available. Neckline seems at 13.19 and 200 MA’ (four-hour chart) seems at 13.22. The pattern aiming at 13.31 and 13.33 50Dsma.
USDMXN-The price spotted with a triple bottom between 19.42 and 19.44, manages to close above 200DSMA’s on Wednesday session. Resistance 19.80, 20 and 20.40. Until the price close above 20.40 trading range remains between 20.40 and 19.20.